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COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
#145587 12/08/2020 06:06 PM
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Georgia Tech made a tool that estimates the risk by the size of the group: Risk Tool. I live in Cobb county so I used that for this test. You can use where you live by finding your county on the map.

Size Risk of COVID being Present
10 16%
20 22%
50 58%
100 81%
500 >99%

Sorry but the tool would not let me do anything between 100 and 500 people. Cobb county is relatively better than most of the country right now.

Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
HedoRick #145588 12/08/2020 07:02 PM
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Interesting! So since I'm a math nerd, thinking about how this might apply to the risk of being in various social settings.... The risk of becoming infected would be something like:

(Risk of COVID being present) x (transmission factor)

And the transmission factor would depend on: Proximity to the infected person(s), Time spent in proximity, & Mitigating (or enhancing) factors like mask wearing, effectiveness of the mask, intimate contact, drink-sharing, body shots, etc...

If we pull a transmission number outta the air and assume that being within 2-3 feet of an infected person without masks for more than a few minutes results in a 50% likelihood of becoming infected, then folks mingling around the bar with 50 random people for a modest amount of time (maybe 15-30 minutes?) would mean something like a 30% chance of being infected. That assumes that you're only around the infected person(s) for a few minutes....

If you run into that same person a 2nd time (or another contagious person), that 30% goes up to 51%. Add a 3rd 'encounter', and you're up to 66%. 4th encounter: 75% 5th encounter: 83%

Actual mileage will vary of course, but the bottom line is that if you're exposed to a contagious person/people multiple times, the risk of becoming infected grows pretty darn quickly.


Chris in FL (previously VT)
Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
Chris_in_VT #145589 12/08/2020 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris_in_VT
Interesting! So since I'm a math nerd, thinking about how this might apply to the risk of being in various social settings.... The risk of becoming infected would be something like:

(Risk of COVID being present) x (transmission factor)

And the transmission factor would depend on: Proximity to the infected person(s), Time spent in proximity, & Mitigating (or enhancing) factors like mask wearing, effectiveness of the mask, intimate contact, drink-sharing, body shots, etc...

If we pull a transmission number outta the air and assume that being within 2-3 feet of an infected person without masks for more than a few minutes results in a 50% likelihood of becoming infected, then folks mingling around the bar with 50 random people for a modest amount of time (maybe 15-30 minutes?) would mean something like a 30% chance of being infected. That assumes that you're only around the infected person(s) for a few minutes....

If you run into that same person a 2nd time (or another contagious person), that 30% goes up to 51%. Add a 3rd 'encounter', and you're up to 66%. 4th encounter: 75% 5th encounter: 83%

Actual mileage will vary of course, but the bottom line is that if you're exposed to a contagious person/people multiple times, the risk of becoming infected grows pretty darn quickly.

I agree with the premise but I think the time and distance factors are likely to be off a bit. The 2-3 feet probably needs to be larger, especially for the environments at Hedo because the ambient sound level, and potentially alcohol, results in talking louder and expelling more air laden with virus containing aerosols and micro aerosols. The time factor likely needs to be smaller because of the highly contagious nature of the virus and the potential for the recipient being more active and inhaling both more deeply and more frequently, thereby potentially bringing on a larger viral dose with each breath.

Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
HedoRick #145590 12/08/2020 09:06 PM
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Agreed.... to say nothing of those luscious body shots. wink


Chris in FL (previously VT)
Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
Chris_in_VT #145591 12/09/2020 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris_in_VT
Agreed.... to say nothing of those luscious body shots. wink

But wouldn't the alcohol in the body shots kill the virus?

Asking for a friend

Judy

Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
repeatoffender4th #145592 12/09/2020 07:43 AM
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If alcohol kills the virus, Hedo would be virus free.

2 members like this: CharlieV., davew
Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
HedoRick #145593 12/09/2020 09:39 AM
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Alcohol (ethanol) in hand sanitizer is >= 65% ethanol. That would be 130 proof which not even overproof rum is that high. So, sorry drinking alcohol won't work. In fact, it probably has the opposite effect as you have to take your mask off.

Getting back to Lyle's point, the ambient noise would also tend to make people get closer to hear. As my Cindy loses her voice from shouting while at Hedo, people would be making more aerosols due to shouting. We know that choir practice led to nearly everyone present getting COVID from one infectious person over three hours (indoors).

Re: COVID Risk by Group Size Tool
HedoRick #145594 12/09/2020 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by HedoRick
Alcohol (ethanol) in hand sanitizer is >= 65% ethanol. That would be 130 proof which not even overproof rum is that high. So, sorry drinking alcohol won't work. In fact, it probably has the opposite effect as you have to take your mask off.

Getting back to Lyle's point, the ambient noise would also tend to make people get closer to hear. As my Cindy loses her voice from shouting while at Hedo, people would be making more aerosols due to shouting. We know that choir practice led to nearly everyone present getting COVID from one infectious person over three hours (indoors).


Right you are......... on all counts.


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